Ho Chi Minh Times

Thursday, Mar 05, 2026

ASEAN+3 groupe de réflexion: l'impact du portefeuille numérique dépend du financement, des changements dans les dépenses

Le Bureau de recherche macroéconomique de l'ASEAN+3 (AMRO) a publié son rapport annuel, qui prévoit que la demande intérieure stimulera la croissance dans la région de l'ASEAN+3 en 2024.
Le rapport souligne l'importance du financement de la politique de portefeuille numérique, qui était une promesse de campagne majeure du parti Pheu Thai lors des dernières élections. Allen Ng d'AMRO souligne que le succès du système de portefeuille numérique dépendra de sa méthode de financement. Le texte discute de l'impact économique potentiel du système de transfert de fonds par portefeuille numérique du gouvernement. Si les dépenses du régime remplacent les dépenses dans des domaines tels que l'éducation ou les infrastructures, l'impact économique global pourrait être limité en raison d'un effet multiplicateur réduit. Le programme, qui devait initialement être financé par un prêt hors budget de 500 milliards de bahts, a été annulé. Le gouvernement finalise les détails du programme pour les soumettre à la prochaine réunion du comité, et le portefeuille numérique devrait atteindre les bénéficiaires d'ici la fin de 2024. Le gouvernement thaïlandais envisage d'utiliser les fonds de deux exercices pour financer des dons destinés à stimuler l'économie. Le Premier ministre Srettha Thavisin a exhorté la Banque de Thaïlande à réduire les taux d'intérêt pour aider à la revitalisation économique. La décision de modifier les taux d'intérêt dépendra de l'inflation, des risques de croissance et de la stabilité financière, cette dernière étant toujours préoccupante en raison de l'endettement élevé des ménages. La croissance a été inférieure aux attentes et l'inflation a été plus faible que prévu, mais la stabilité financière reste un problème. Le texte suggère que Ng, un analyste, croit qu'il est justifié pour la banque centrale de reconsidérer son évaluation de la politique monétaire. De nombreux analystes s'attendent à ce que la banque centrale décide d'ajuster sa politique dès le mois d'avril.
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